Date：2025-12-22Views：0
Recently, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) released a global financial outlook report for the aviation industry, stating that the global aviation industry's profits are stabilizing, and the industry's net profit margin for airlines will remain at 3.9%. However, prominent issues in the supply chain and other areas will continue to exist.
The report predicts that global airlines will achieve a total net profit of $41 billion by 2026, a slight increase from $39 billion in 2025 and a historic high, with a net profit margin maintained at the same level of 3.9% as in 2025. The report predicts that the industry's operating profit will reach 72.8 billion US dollars in 2026, an increase from 67 billion US dollars in 2025, with an operating profit margin of 6.9%, an increase from 6.6% in 2025. The report also predicts that the passenger transport volume will reach 5.2 billion by 2026, an increase of 4.4% compared to 2025; The freight volume will reach 71.6 million tons, an increase of 2.4% compared to 2025.
International Air Transport Association President Willie Walsh pointed out that amidst challenges such as rising supply chain costs, frequent geopolitical conflicts, and sluggish global trade in the global aviation industry, the news that global airlines are expected to achieve a net profit of $41 billion by 2026 is encouraging and proves that global airlines still have resilience in the face of shocks.
The report points out that the return on investment capital of global airlines will remain at 6.8% in 2026, unchanged from 2025, and continue to be lower than the industry weighted average cost of capital of 8.2%. Walsh pointed out that the problem of insufficient profitability in the air transportation industry to cover capital costs has not been resolved. Considering that the aviation transportation industry chain accounts for up to 4% of the global economy and employs 87 million people, this profit level appears relatively fragile. Even compared to other aviation transportation sectors such as civil aircraft engines, avionics manufacturing, and downstream supporting service providers, the low profits of global airlines are clearly imbalanced. If we can 'rebalance' the inter industry profits of the entire air freight related value chain by reducing regulatory and tax burdens, improving infrastructure efficiency, etc., it will inject greater impetus into economic development.
Air cargo performance is impressive. The report points out that in the rapidly changing trade environment, air freight has broken pessimistic predictions about this industry and performed outstandingly. Walsh stated that in 2025, international trade will become more active in order to adapt to the United States' protectionist tariff policies, such as the competition for imports, which will enhance the time sensitivity of goods trade. After the implementation of tariffs by the United States, a large number of products originally intended for export to the United States were resold to third country markets, which also increased the demand for flexibility in transportation capacity. At the same time, the rapid growth of trade and investment related to artificial intelligence has led to a surge in freight demand for commodities such as semiconductors. Air freight plays a crucial role in meeting the aforementioned capacity demands.
The report also points out that the development of the global air transportation industry faces multiple risks and constraints, among which supply chain challenges continue to constrain airlines' ability to meet customer demands. Although the delivery of new aircraft will significantly accelerate in 2026, driven by high load rates and stable revenue, the number of new orders for civil aviation aircraft will exceed the production of new aircraft, and the problem of backlog of aircraft orders will continue to worsen.
The problem of supply shortage will impact the long-term operation of airlines. In addition to the inability to keep up with industry demand in the delivery schedule of complete aircraft, supply chain disruptions have also led to a shortage of parts, and the overall increase in aircraft age has also pushed up the maintenance costs of various airlines' fleets. Faced with a shortage of new aircraft supply, some airlines have chosen to rent planes in order to generate short-term capacity. The current leasing rate in the global air transport fleet has reached a record level, driving up airline operating costs. In regions such as the Middle East where air freight demand is growing rapidly, airlines are responding to the shortage of new aircraft deliveries by modifying aircraft to extend their lifespan. However, these efforts cannot increase capacity in the short term.
Insufficient infrastructure will also constrain the development of the industry. The report believes that the problem of insufficient air transportation infrastructure will not significantly improve in 2026. Due to the high correlation between infrastructure improvement costs and air transportation service prices, the issues of infrastructure costs and price competitiveness will become more prominent. In addition, the risk of geopolitical conflicts continues to bring huge costs to the air transport industry. The closure of airspace caused by conflicts, interference with global satellite navigation systems, and the relocation of routes due to political or security considerations will all limit airline operations and reduce air transport efficiency.
